The huge rise in Tesla’s share price, analysts explain, was associated with increased investor confidence in the company’s ability to continue to expand its electric vehicle production at an accelerated pace. UBS experts believe that Volkswagen will keep up with the competitor, and by the middle of the decade, both companies will become the largest players in the market.
According to analysts at New Street Research, by the end of next year Tesla will be able to increase production of electric vehicles to two million a year and in 2023 will overcome this milestone. According to UBS experts, Volkswagen has a quite feasible task to release at least 1.2 million electric vehicles next year, which will bring it closer to Tesla in terms of the scale of its core business.
Already at the end of last year, Volkswagen managed to occupy up to 25% of the European market, approaching Tesla. According to UBS experts, Volkswagen platforms for creating electric vehicles will be distinguished by good scalability. If in 2020 a manufacturer could earn on average 1% of its cost on each electric vehicle, then by 2025 the profit rate will grow to 7%. By the middle of the decade, as already noted, the cost of producing a budget electric car will equal the cost of producing a car with an internal combustion engine.
Tesla will be able to maintain leadership in certain areas, as the authors of the policy note explain. Thus, the American company will outperform the German competitor in software, including active driver assistance functions. Tesla’s developments in the field of creating powertrains, according to UBS experts, will also provide the company with technological leadership compared to Volkswagen. By 2040, UBS predicts that electric vehicles will finally penetrate all segments of the automotive market. The strategy chosen by Volkswagen for the transition to electric traction in this case should ensure the success of the business transformation.
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